With seven weeks in the books there is enough of a sample size to come to specific conclusions about the current state of the teams and there second half performance so far this year. Let’s take a look at the three best teams in the NFL Against The Spread (A-T-S) so far and identify some performance trends to keep in mind looking ahead to this weekend’s action:
The Patriots are 6-1 A-T-S so far this season which comes out to an NFL best 86% cover rate. What’s been a big factor? Well for one thing is is not the return of golden boy quarterback Tom Brady. Its been their defense. This shouldn’t come as a surprise when you realize that this is the side of the ball that is head coach Bill Belichick’s specialty. The D has been spectacular, particularly in the second half of games of late. The Pats have only surrendered one second half touchdown (vs Cin, week six) in their last five games. As a result they have outscored their opponents in the second half in four of their last five games. The only exception was when they started rookie QB-Jacoby Brissett against the Bills in week three. This is significant when you consider they gave up five second half TD’s in their first two games and played two of those games without Brady. Look for this team’s second half dominance to continue but they get a stiff test this week up in Buffalo against the division rival Bills. You can bet Brady, Belichick and company will be looking for revenge for the week three shutout they received from Rex Ryan and company.
The Vikings and Cowboys are next with an overall cover rate of 83% and identical 5-1 A-T-S records. Minnesota’s success can also be direct correlated to their second half defensive dominance so far this year. They have only been outscored by their opponents once in the second half this entire year. Coincidently it was the only game they lost straight up and against the spread. The Vikings are giving up less than six second half points per game. This is a second half team you can get behind and might want to consider this week as they head to Chicago for a Monday night tilt against the Bears.
Dallas is another strong second half team to consider in 2016. The ‘Boys have won the second half in four of six games. The key has been the stinginess of their defense. In those four games the defense gave up one TD or less in the second half. This is impressive when you consider that the Cowboys have trailed at the half just once this year. The point being is that opposing defenses were likely more aggressive trying to come back on them. Another important key to their success has been the impressive play of rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott who leads the NFL in rushing after seven weeks and didn’t even play last week! This team’s ability to protect a lead is a key item to note when thinking about second half action. They’ve got a huge test this week at home against division rival Philadelphia. Can Zeke and Boys do their second half thing against rookie QB Carson Wentz and the Eagles?